Northeast Brazil: climate forecast for summer 2022

In almost all of Brazil, spring means the return of rain, increased heat and humidity. But for most of the North-Eastern regions and the northern part of the Northern region, where the states of Roraima and Amapá are located, summer is the time of intense heat and less rain.

Spring with La Nina

The waters of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean have a temperature below average, which is indicative of a La Niña ocean climate.

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La Niña has influenced global climate since mid-2020. Summer 2022 will be the third consecutive summer with La Niña-modified precipitation and weather conditions.

The South Atlantic Ocean

During most of the summer, the temperature difference between the oceanic area of ​​the Southern Ocean and the area between the coast of Uruguay and Argentina will not be favorable for the migration of cold air through Brazil. The situation is that the system passes quickly over the South and continues along the southeast coast, they have no effect in the region of this region and in the Midwest.

other surprises

The distribution of winds at different levels of climate and temperature in the continent will not be good for generating portable devices. This type of weather phenomenon is typical of the summer season and is responsible for the occurrence of storms and heavy rains over the South and Central-West regions of Brazil.


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During the summer, the gradual accumulation of moisture and heat facilitates the formation of cumulonimbus clouds, which often cause heavy rain, with strong winds, lightning and hail (ice). This type of rain has become rain during the day and evening of summer in the south, southeast, central west and north of Brazil, and they are happening again in some places in the south of Maranhao, the south of Piauí and the west of Brazil.

These floods can cause many problems in urban and rural areas, such as damage to crops, floods and flash floods, falling of small, medium and even large trees, damage to power lines, death of people and animals.

before the cold

Most of the cold areas will continue to the southeast of Brazil, but most of them by sea, with a strong impact on the areas near the coast. Finally, some cold fronts may affect the Midwest, facilitating the formation of areas of rain and removing the heat.

In the southeast region, the most prominent and the cold that these cold fronts will cause will be in the areas near the coast, which will reach the south and east of São Paulo, the state of Rio De Janeiro, the state of Espírito Santo, a part of Southern Minas da Zona da Mata Mineira.

Finally, the cold air of the origin of the rope may enter Mato Grosso do Sul.

Humidity line and SACZ

In November and December, some of these cold fronts should reach the coast of Espírito Santo and will help create heat paths between the southeast and the north of Brazil, which will be responsible for frequent periods of and even voluminous fog in the middle and. north of the Southeast Region, in the north of the Center-West, in the regions of Pará, Tocantins and Bahia.

The formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is likely to occur in November and/or December 2022.

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weather forecast map

Colors in the Spring 2022 weather forecast map represent precipitation and temperature forecasts. Anomaly is the difference between the forecast and the natural value, which is the previously calculated information.

Fog anomaly maps

– green shades indicate precipitation above (dark green) the normal average or slightly above (light green) the average monthly climate; shades of orange represent precipitation below (dark orange) normal average or slightly below (light orange) average monthly climate; Light gray tones indicate precipitation near the monthly mean temperature.

Temperature anomaly map

– red glasses indicate the temperature above (dark red) the normal average or slightly above (light red) the average monthly temperature; shades of blue represent temperatures below (dark blue) normal average or slightly below (light blue) average monthly temperatures; Light gray tones indicate temperatures close to the monthly mean temperature.

A summary of the 2022 summer forecast for the Northeast Region

October: average to above average precipitation in Bahia and Sergipe; Rainfall is less in other states of North East. Temperatures are close to normal in most areas of the Region.

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November: rainfall should be close to normal in northern Maranhão, north-central Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco and Alagoas; above average in southern Maranhao, southern Piauí and almost all of Bahia.

Total rainfall slightly above average in Sergipe and other regions of Bahia, Piauí and Maranhão and average temperature in almost the entire region.

Temperatures slightly below normal in the extreme south of Maranhão, in the west and extreme south of Bahia.

December: Total rainfall is above average in most parts of the Northeast; Rainfall near normal in northeastern Maranhão, north-central Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe and in the extreme north of Bahia.

Above average rainfall in the south and southwest of Bahia, including the region of Ilhéus, Porto Seguro and Planalto da Conquista and temperatures in the average for almost the entire region.

Temperatures slightly below normal in the extreme south of Maranhão and Piauí, in the west and in the São Francisco Valley, in Bahia.

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